The 2017 Primetime Emmy Awards are Sunday, which means it’s time for me to share my 100 percent correct predictions with the world. After many hours spent pouring over stats, Emmy history, and the nominated shows themselves, I believe I am confident enough that most of my predictions will come true in the end, but also it’s the Emmys so I could very well be throwing out my ballot two or three awards into the evening.
Here are my final Emmy predictions for 2017, ranked from most to least likely to win.
COMEDY SERIES
- Veep
- Atlanta
- Master of None
- Silicon Valley
- black-ish
- Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt
- Modern Family
Veep is the incumbent, the defending two-time champion in this category, and it received a whopping 17 nominations this year. That’s more than any other comedy nominated here by a country mile, and even though I found Season 6 to be weaker than usual, there’s no reason to not predict a win here. The Donald Glover-helmed Atlanta can certainly upset considering it’s the “cool” choice, but it may be too niche for some older Academy members. The only other show I could see spoiling is Master of None, but its lack of a directing nomination suggests it won’t have the passion.
COMEDY LEAD ACTOR
- Jeffrey Tambor – Transparent
- Donald Glover – Atlanta
- Anthony Anderson – black-ish
- William H. Macy – Shameless
- Zach Galifianakis – Baskets
- Aziz Ansari – Master of None
This is surprisingly one of the hardest categories to predict this year. Jeffrey Tambor has won twice in a row for his transformative performance as a transgender woman, but Transparent slipped out of Comedy Series and voters may be looking to move on. I am tentatively predicting he wins one last time due to his history in this category, plus, political voters may want to send a message after Trump’s military transgender ban. Donald Glover is one of the most well-respected personalities in show business right now, but his performance may be too subtle. My personal choice would be Anthony Anderson, but he has already lost twice for this role and I’m not sure if there’s anything to indicate a sudden surge for him.
COMEDY LEAD ACTRESS
- Julia Louis-Dreyfus – Veep
- Pamela Adlon – Better Things
- Tracee Ellis Ross – black-ish
- Allison Janney – Mom
- Lily Tomlin – Grace and Frankie
- Ellie Kemper – Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt
- Jane Fonda – Grace and Frankie
Julia Louis-Dreyfus has had a stranglehold on Comedy Lead Actress since 2012, winning five years in a row for playing blundering politician Selina Meyer on Veep. I refuse to predict anyone else for the win until she loses, and with Veep ending next year, she may just make an unprecedented clean sweep for all seven seasons. I am rooting for Tracee Ellis Ross and Allison Janney, as they both provide unexpected resonance to goofy network comedies, but Pamela Adlon is the person who could upset JLD, as a working actress who has been around for awhile who finally received her own star vehicle.
COMEDY SUPPORTING ACTOR
- Alec Baldwin – Saturday Night Live
- Tituss Burgess – Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt
- Louie Anderson – Baskets
- Matt Walsh – Veep
- Tony Hale – Veep
- Ty Burrell – Modern Family
Alec Baldwin’s performance as Donald Trump on SNL is perhaps the most noteworthy of the entire year, whether you like it or not. Even if you didn’t watch SNL this season you heard about Baldwin’s impression of the president (especially when said president has commented on it several times). I would love to see Tituss Burgess win considering this was his best season of Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt and he has been criminally robbed of a win for the past two years. Louie Anderson won last year so he has a shot of repeating but I have a feeling the shock of his performance will be a one-and-done win.
COMEDY SUPPORTING ACTRESS
- Judith Light – Transparent
- Kate McKinnon – Saturday Night Live
- Anna Chlumsky – Veep
- Kathryn Hahn – Transparent
- Leslie Jones – Saturday Night Live
- Vanessa Bayer – Saturday Night Live
This is my boldest prediction of the year, and some may be shaking their head that I’m not predicting Kate McKinnon, the undisputed star of SNL this past season who also won this Emmy last year. But if voters actually watch the episode submissions in this category, I don’t see how they could resist Judith Light, who plays Shelly, the ex-wife of Tambor’s character who goes through a spiritual reawakening in Season 3 of Transparent. She has also been attending numerous Academy events, which only helps her case. I will not be shocked in the least bit if McKinnon wins, but I would love the satisfaction of predicting this upset.
COMEDY DIRECTING
- Atlanta (“B.A.N.”) – Donald Glover
- Veep (“Groundbreaking”) – David Mandel
- Veep (“Justice”) – Dale Stern
- Silicon Valley (“Server Error”) – Mike Judge
- Veep (“Blurb”) – Morgan Sackett
- Silicon Valley (“Intellectual Property”) – Jamie Babbit
The “B.A.N.” episode of Atlanta finally sold me on the show’s vision, and it may be the most inventive episode of comedy this year, re-imagining television from a black perspective and discussing difficult societal issues. It’s by far the most impressively directed episode nominated here, and it’s easy to see the multiple nominations for Silicon Valley and Veep splitting the vote, leading to an easy Atlanta win.
COMEDY WRITING
- Master of None (“Thanksgiving”) – Aziz Ansari & Lena Waithe
- Veep (“Groundbreaking”) – David Mandel
- Atlanta (“B.A.N.”) – Donald Glover
- Veep (“Georgia”) – Billy Kimball
- Atlanta (“Streets on Lock”) – Stephen Glover
- Silicon Valley (“Success Failure”) – Alec Berg
Master of None won this category last year and I expect it to win this year as well. The “Thanksgiving” episode, in which Denise (Lena Waithe) comes out to her mother (Angela Bassett), received huge acclaim, with many calling it the highlight of the season. With this win, Waithe would become the first black woman to win this category in Emmy history. The “Groundbreaking” episode of Veep is probably the most impressive episode of the season, but I believe “Thanksgiving” will simply resonate more with voters.
LIMITED SERIES
- Big Little Lies
- The Night Of
- Feud: Bette and Joan
- Fargo
- Genius
First of all, I love that Limited Series is one of the most competitive races of the year. I am going with Big Little Lies because I think it’s simply the most watched and beloved of these nominees, with 16 nominations in total, plus it won the key Casting award at the Creative Arts Emmys last weekend, often thought to be a harbinger of a Series win. The Night Of also did very well at the Creative Arts so I think it’s very much in this if there’s some splitting between Big Little Lies and Feud.
TELEVISION MOVIE
- Black Mirror: San Junipero
- Sherlock: The Lying Detective
- The Wizard of Lies
- The Immortal Life of Henrietta Lacks
- Dolly Parton’s Christmas of Many Colors: Circle of Love
Neither Black Mirror nor Sherlock should be in this category considering “San Junipero” and “The Lying Detective” are episodes of their respective shows, not proper TV movies. Having said that, both shows are the most critically acclaimed here, but I’m going with Black Mirror because “San Junipero” is one of the best pieces of art to air on television this past year, and it is the only “movie” here to get a Writing nomination. HBO TV movies typically win here, but The Wizard of Lies and Henrietta Lacks were too underwhelming.
LIMITED SERIES/MOVIE LEAD ACTOR
- Riz Ahmed – The Night Of
- Robert De Niro – The Wizard of Lies
- Geoffrey Rush – Genius
- John Turturro – The Night Of
- Ewan McGregor – Fargo
- Benedict Cumberbatch – Sherlock: The Lying Detective
It’s a risk to predict Riz Ahmed because Emmy voters are traditionally unkind to younger actors, but he has had a huge year and his performance as a Muslim man accused of murder is just that good. The Television Academy is clearly getting hipper, as we saw with Rami Malek and Tatiana Maslany’s wins last year, so I think Ahmed has this.There is the Robert De Niro factor, but again, I don’t think there’s much love for The Wizard of Lies to bring him to a win.
LIMITED SERIES/MOVIE LEAD ACTRESS
- Nicole Kidman – Big Little Lies
- Jessica Lange – Feud: Bette and Joan
- Carrie Coon – Fargo
- Reese Witherspoon – Big Little Lies
- Felicity Huffman – American Crime
- Susan Sarandon – Feud: Bette and Joan
This has been the category to end all categories for us Emmy lovers, with all kinds of movie stars and acclaimed actresses in the mix. The race eventually shaped up to be Nicole Kidman (as abuse victim Celeste Wright) vs. Jessica Lange (as Hollywood diva Joan Crawford), and now I’m leaning more towards Kidman. Very few other performances received such calls for an Emmy win in the industry, and rightfully so. However, I could also see Carrie Coon pulling off an upset if Kidman and Lange split votes with their co-stars.
LIMITED SERIES/MOVIE SUPPORTING ACTOR
- Michael Kenneth Williams – The Night Of
- Alexander Skarsgård – Big Little Lies
- David Thewlis – Fargo
- Bill Camp – The Night Of
- Alfred Molina – Feud: Bette and Joan
- Stanley Tucci – Feud: Bette and Joan
I know very few other people who are predicting Michael Kenneth Williams for this category, but hear me out. This guy has been a television veteran for years (The Wire, Boardwalk Empire, Community, Bessie), and his performance as a prisoner in The Night Of is exquisite. It would be a win reminiscent of Regina King or Ben Mendelsohn or Margo Martindale, a veteran actor finally getting his due. Alexander Skarsgård’s villainous performance is the safer bet, but I have a feeling they’re going to go crazy for The Night Of here, and Williams is the more beloved actor between him and Bill Camp.
LIMITED SERIES/MOVIE SUPPORTING ACTRESS
- Laura Dern – Big Little Lies
- Regina King – American Crime
- Judy Davis – Feud: Bette and Joan
- Shailene Woodley – Big Little Lies
- Jackie Hoffman – Feud: Bette and Joan
- Michelle Pfeiffer – The Wizard of Lies
Laura Dern has been having one hell of a year, between Big Little Lies, Twin Peaks, Wilson, The Founder and the upcoming Star Wars film. Dern is highly respected in Hollywood and her performance as alpha mom Renata Klein in Big Little Lies is simply to die for. Watch out for Regina King, though. Even though American Crime was canceled, King has won the past two years and may just do it again.
LIMITED SERIES/MOVIE DIRECTING
- The Night Of (“The Beach”) – Steven Zaillian
- Big Little Lies – Jean-Marc Vallée
- Feud: Bette and Joan (“And the Winner Is…”) – Ryan Murphy
- Genius (“Einstein: Chapter One”) – Ron Howard
- The Night Of (“The Art of War”) – James Marsh
- Fargo – (“The Law of Vacant Places”) – Noah Hawley
Once again, I think the safest choice is Big Little Lies for Jean-Marc Vallée’s fearless direction, but I have a gut feeling that this is going to The Night Of, for its first episode. That first episode is so brilliant plotted out, with just the right amount of tension and intrigue, that I think it takes this. The Oscars episode of Feud is also an impressive technical achievement but voters seem to have a weird bias against Ryan Murphy here, considering he has lost this prize multiple times over the years.
LIMITED SERIES/MOVIE WRITING
- Big Little Lies – David E. Kelley
- The Night Of (“The Call of the Wild”) – Richard Price & Steven Zaillian
- Black Mirror: San Junipero – Charlie Brooker
- Fargo – (“The Law of Vacant Places”) – Noah Hawley
- Feud: Bette and Joan (“And the Winner Is… (The Oscars of 1963)”) – Ryan Murphy
- Feud: Bette and Joan (“Pilot”) – Jaffe Cohen, Michael Zam & Ryan Murphy
David E. Kelley took a fun summer beach read and turned it into gripping television, and that’s thanks to his genius writing. Kelley has won an astonishing 10 Emmys, so I think this is the place Big Little Lies is rewarded, between Directing and Writing. Again, The Night Of could easily upset, and I would love to see “San Junipero” take it, but I can’t bet against Kelley.
VARIETY TALK SERIES
- Last Week Tonight with John Oliver
- The Late Show with Stephen Colbert
- Full Frontal with Samantha Bee
- The Late Late Show with James Corden
- Jimmy Kimmel Live!
- Real Time with Bill Maher
All six of these shows were buzzy throughout the year, for better or for worse. I think Last Week Tonight has the edge not only for its in-depth reporting of underreported issues but because it won last year and it has seven other nominations, something the other five shows cannot boast about. The rise of The Late Show could certainly help that show, and there will surely be those supporting a Full Frontal victory, but their times will come.
VARIETY SKETCH SERIES
- Saturday Night Live
- Portlandia
- Billy on the Street
- Tracey Ullman’s Show
- Drunk History
- Documentary Now!
Saturday Night Live. No question. Next.
VARIETY DIRECTING
- Saturday Night Live (“Host: Jimmy Fallon”) – Don Roy King
- Last Week Tonight with John Oliver (“Multi-Level Marketing”) – Paul Pennolino
- The Late Show with Stephen Colbert (“Episode 0179”) – Jim Hoskinson
- Drunk History (“Hamilton”) – Jeremy Konner & Derek Waters
- Jimmy Kimmel Live! (“The (RED) Show”) – Andy Fisher
This is another category I see SNL winning. The sheer technical achievement of what Don Roy King pulls off for 90 minutes every week is unmatched in this category. SNL has also won this category six times before, the most of any show in history.
VARIETY WRITING
- Last Week Tonight with John Oliver
- Saturday Night Live
- Full Frontal with Samantha Bee
- The Late Show with Stephen Colbert
- Late Night with Seth Meyers
I think Last Week Tonight‘s Variety Talk win will go hand-in-hand with this Writing win. Much of the appeal of John Oliver’s show is in presenting subjects the audience may not care about to start and getting them to be invested by the end of 30 minutes, and for that I expect it to win. Of course, SNL could easily sweep and win this too.
REALITY-COMPETITION PROGRAM
- RuPaul’s Drag Race
- The Voice
- The Amazing Race
- American Ninja Warrior
- Top Chef
- Project Runway
RuPaul’s Drag Race is the new blood in this race, and it automatically catapulted to no. 1 for me, and many others. The show broke through in a major way with eight nominations this year, winning three at the Creative Arts Emmys. The Voice has won this three of the past four years, but the fact that it was nominated for nine Emmys at the Creative Arts and won none of them suggests voters may have moved on.
DRAMA SERIES
- Stranger Things
- The Handmaid’s Tale
- Westworld
- This Is Us
- The Crown
- Better Call Saul
- House of Cards
I love this category. To have five new shows here, without the presence of Game of Thrones, is incredibly refreshing and it’s all but guaranteed to go to one of them. I’m going with Stranger Things because it had the most cultural impact, with those kids still making headlines a year after it dropped on Netflix, and it’s in the sweet spot of ’80s nostalgia for the average voter to appreciate. It also took home five Emmys already at the Creative Arts, including Casting, and that’s a very good sign. The Handmaid’s Tale could also win due to its political relevance, and Westworld‘s 22 nominations cannot be ignored. I can even make a case for This Is Us, the triumphant return of network TV to this race!
DRAMA LEAD ACTOR
- Sterling K. Brown – This Is Us
- Bob Odenkirk – Better Call Saul
- Anthony Hopkins – Westworld
- Milo Ventimiglia – This Is Us
- Liev Schreiber – Ray Donovan
- Kevin Spacey – House of Cards
- Matthew Rhys – The Americans
Sterling K. Brown just won an Emmy last year for playing Christopher Darden in The People v. O.J. Simpson, and I expect him to win another Emmy this year for his role as Randall Pearson in This Is Us. This is one of the most likable guys in Hollywood right now, whose career trajectory continues to grow. However, Bob Odenkirk is another one of those working actors who has been in the business for years who had a great season on Better Call Saul. Then there’s Anthony Hopkins, who is, well, Anthony Hopkins.
DRAMA LEAD ACTRESS
- Elisabeth Moss – The Handmaid’s Tale
- Claire Foy – The Crown
- Robin Wright – House of Cards
- Evan Rachel Wood – Westworld
- Viola Davis – How to Get Away with Murder
- Keri Russell – The Americans
It is Elisabeth Moss’ time. This woman has been contributing her talents to television for close to two decades, with The West Wing, Mad Men, Top of the Lake, and now The Handmaid’s Tale. She has been nominated seven times previously but has never won, but her role as Offred, a woman forced to live under strict religious doctrine in The Handmaid’s Tale is going to be enough to get her that first victory. Claire Foy definitely has a shot (she’s playing Queen Elizabeth for crying out loud) but the buzz on Moss is too big to fail.
DRAMA SUPPORTING ACTOR
- John Lithgow – The Crown
- Ron Cephas Jones – This Is Us
- Jeffrey Wright – Westworld
- David Harbour – Stranger Things
- Jonathan Banks – Better Call Saul
- Michael Kelly – House of Cards
- Mandy Patinkin – Homeland
John Lithgow playing Winston Churchill is one of those performances that is just undeniable. He already won the SAG Award, winning over actual lead performances, and this is just awards bait at its finest. Ron Cephas Jones has a slight chance considering the emotional resonance of his character, but I would truly be shocked if Lithgow lost this.
DRAMA SUPPORTING ACTRESS
- Millie Bobby Brown – Stranger Things
- Thandie Newton – Westworld
- Ann Dowd – The Handmaid’s Tale
- Chrissy Metz – This Is Us
- Samira Wiley – The Handmaid’s Tale
- Uzo Aduba – Orange Is the New Black
This is a tough one. Perhaps the toughest one. I could make a case for each and every contender here. Millie Bobby Brown plays the instantly-iconic, fan favorite Eleven on Stranger Things, Thandie Newton out-shined her co-stars on Westworld, Ann Dowd was terrifyingly brilliant on The Handmaid’s Tale, Chrissy Metz plays a relatable character on This Is Us, Samira Wiley was in two great shows this past year, and Uzo Aduba has won twice before. I’m going with Brown because I think voters want to see her up on that stage giving a speech, and it’s been a long time since we’ve seen a debut performance this good. However, I could also see Newton being Westworld‘s consolation prize for the night.
DRAMA DIRECTING
- Stranger Things (“Chapter One: The Vanishing of Will Byers”) – The Duffer Brothers
- The Handmaid’s Tale (“Offred”) – Reed Morano
- Westworld (“The Bicameral Mind”) – Jonathan Nolan
- The Crown (“Hyde Park Corner”) – Stephen Daldry
- The Handmaid’s Tale (“The Bridge”) – Kate Dennis
- Better Call Saul (“Witness”) – Vince Gilligan
- Homeland (“America First”) – Lesli Linka Glatter
Since I’m predicting Stranger Things for Drama Series it would be foolish to not have the show winning Directing as well. The first episode instantly transports you into the world of 1980s suburbia. Since directors love pilot episodes I could also see them going for The Handmaid’s Tale‘s pilot. Westworld‘s finale is also confidently directed so it too could win.
DRAMA WRITING
- The Handmaid’s Tale (“Offred”) – Bruce Miller
- The Crown (“Assassins”) – Peter Morgan
- Better Call Saul (“Chicanery”) – Gordon Smith
- Westworld (“The Bicameral Mind”) – Lisa Joy & Jonathan Nolan
- Stranger Things (“Chapter One: The Vanishing of Will Byers”) – The Duffer Brothers
- The Americans (“The Soviet Division”) – Joel Fields & Joe Weisberg
This is another wide open race that could go to any of them. I think adapting Margaret Atwood’s book to the small screen will impress enough in the writers branch to select The Handmaid’s Tale here, but I’m not all that confident. All of these are critically-acclaimed episodes of television, especially for their writing.
So will I be right on Sunday? Of course. But just in case, be sure to tune in to the 69th Annual Primetime Emmy Awards Sunday at 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT on CBS, hosted by Stephen Colbert.