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91st Academy Awards Predictions in All 24 Categories

February 22, 2019 Kevin Jacobsen Oscars 0

The Oscars are finally upon us! Here’s my full list of winner predictions ranked in order of likelihood of a win. I have also included a brief comment on my reasons for picking each winner.

Best Picture

  1. Roma
  2. Green Book
  3. Black Panther
  4. BlacKkKlansman
  5. Bohemian Rhapsody
  6. The Favourite
  7. A Star Is Born
  8. Vice

In a chaotic Best Picture race, I’m going with the film that took home major prizes at the Golden Globes, Critics’ Choice, DGA, and BAFTA — Roma. I anticipate it will earn a huge amount of no. 1 votes, while its toughest competition (Green Book, Black Panther, BlacKkKlansman) will be a little too divisive to pull ahead of it. I don’t feel fully confident about it, but it’s the safest choice. Green Book is a strong runner-up but its countless scandals may ultimately do it in.

Best Director

  1. Alfonso Cuarón – Roma
  2. Spike Lee – BlacKkKlansman
  3. Yorgos Lanthimos – The Favourite
  4. Adam McKay – Vice
  5. Pawel Pawlikowski – Cold War

This should go to the director that has eaten up the director prizes at the Golden Globes, Critics’ Choice, DGA and BAFTA: Alfonso Cuarón. Spike Lee is the only viable alternative, but even that seems unlikely at this point.

Best Actor

  1. Rami Malek – Bohemian Rhapsody
  2. Christian Bale – Vice
  3. Bradley Cooper – A Star Is Born
  4. Viggo Mortensen – Green Book
  5. Willem Dafoe – At Eternity’s Gate

Sometimes an actor wins an Oscar for the character they play, and I truly believe that if original choice Sacha Baron Cohen had played Freddie Mercury, he would be winning right now. I don’t think Rami Malek is as bad as other pundits have suggested, but in a field with Bradley Cooper giving the performance of his career, I can’t help but be disappointed with how things turned out. Regardless, Malek has won at the Golden Globes, SAG, and BAFTA and he is campaigning like crazy. Bale seemed like a threat for a while but I’m not sensing the urgency to give him a second Oscar.

Best Actress

  1. Glenn Close – The Wife
  2. Olivia Colman – The Favourite
  3. Lady Gaga – A Star Is Born
  4. Melissa McCarthy – Can You Ever Forgive Me?
  5. Yalitza Aparicio – Roma

On the flip side, as a longtime fan I couldn’t be more thrilled to see how Glenn Close’s awards run has gone. With a perfectly calibrated Golden Globe speech and a major overdue narrative that ties in perfectly with the unappreciated character she plays in The Wife, the stars are finally aligning for the veteran actress. BAFTA/Golden Globes winner Olivia Colman is a possible last-minute spoiler, but if she had been more of a presence campaigning on the ground this award season, I would be feeling more confident in her.

Best Supporting Actor

  1. Mahershala Ali – Green Book
  2. Richard E. Grant – Can You Ever Forgive Me?
  3. Sam Elliott – A Star Is Born
  4. Adam Driver – BlacKkKlansman
  5. Sam Rockwell – Vice

Mahershala Ali is the only case of an actor sweeping all four of Golden Globe, Critics’ Choice, SAG, and BAFTA in the acting categories this year. This is a safe place where Green Book fans can feel comfortable voting for it without causing too much controversy. I wouldn’t call it a 100% lock, though, as Richard E. Grant has been the single most charming element of this nightmarish award season.

Best Supporting Actress

  1. Regina King – If Beale Street Could Talk
  2. Rachel Weisz – The Favourite
  3. Marina de Tavira – Roma
  4. Amy Adams – Vice
  5. Emma Stone – The Favourite

The stats may not be in Regina King’s favor, but after wins at the Golden Globes and Critics’ Choice Awards, she’s as close to a frontrunner as we can say in this wacky category. Rachel Weisz won at BAFTA, but her inability to win at SAG over someone who wasn’t even nominated at the Oscars (pour one out for the criminally underappreciated Emily Blunt) doesn’t bode well. I and many others have compared this race to when Mark Rylance pulled off an “upset” over Sylvester Stallone in 2015, but the difference is Regina King is actually well-liked in Hollywood and has been doing great work for years.

Best Original Screenplay

  1. The Favourite – Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara
  2. Green Book – Nick Vallelonga, Brian Hayes Currie and Peter Farrelly
  3. First Reformed – Paul Schrader
  4. Roma – Alfonso Cuarón
  5. Vice – Adam McKay

This is a category where The Favourite should be easily winning, but the popularity of Green Book among awards bodies must not be ignored. I think the wicked witticisms of The Favourite will give it an edge here; while it was not eligible at WGA, the fact that Green Book wasn’t able to win there could be a sign of things to come.

Best Adapted Screenplay

  1. BlacKkKlansman – Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott and Spike Lee
  2. Can You Ever Forgive Me? – Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty
  3. If Beale Street Could Talk – Barry Jenkins
  4. A Star Is Born – Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper and Will Fetters
  5. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs – Joel Coen and Ethan Coen

This is where Spike Lee should finally earn that overdue competitive Oscar. Screenplay categories often go to the film with the most Best Picture heat, and I don’t think A Star Is Born is exactly a writing showcase, so the clever BlacKkKlansman it is! WGA winner Can You Ever Forgive Me? is a spoiler, though perhaps not with the full Academy voting.

Best Animated Feature Film

  1. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse – Bob Persichetti, Peter Ramsey, Rodney Rothman, Phil Lord and Christopher Miller
  2. Incredibles 2 – Brad Bird, John Walker and Nicole Paradis Grindle
  3. Isle of Dogs – Wes Anderson, Scott Rudin, Steven Rales and Jeremy Dawson
  4. Ralph Breaks the Internet – Rich Moore, Phil Johnston and Clark Spencer
  5. Mirai – Mamoru Hosoda and Yuichiro Saito

It’s Spider-Man, of course! Finally Disney-Pixar’s reign over this category since 2012 will be over!

Best Documentary Feature

  1. Free Solo – Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi, Jimmy Chin, Evan Hayes and Shannon Dill
  2. RBG – Betsy West and Julie Cohen
  3. Minding the Gap – Bing Liu and Diane Quon
  4. Of Fathers and Sons – Talal Derki, Ansgar Frerich, Eva Kemme and Tobias N. Siebert
  5. Hale County This Morning, This Evening – RaMell Ross, Joslyn Barnes and Su Kim

This would be an easy call if Won’t You Be My Neighbor? were nominated, but alas, it is not. I think RBG is a strong possibility on Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s popularity alone, but Free Solo has been a high-profile doc all season and its death-defying filmmaking should be enough to impress voters.

Best Foreign Language Film

  1. Roma (Mexico)
  2. Cold War (Poland)
  3. Shoplifters (Japan)
  4. Never Look Away (Germany)
  5. Capernaum (Lebanon)

This is obviously Roma and anyone who says otherwise is trying to sabotage your Oscar pool. Yeah I see you, Phyllis.

Best Cinematography

  1. Roma – Alfonso Cuarón
  2. Cold War – Łukasz Żal
  3. The Favourite – Robbie Ryan
  4. A Star Is Born – Matthew Libatique
  5. Never Look Away – Caleb Deschanel

Cold War‘s win at the American Society of Cinematographers Awards gives me some doubt, but with the whole Academy voting, I can’t see this going to anything but Roma with its gorgeous framework and long, dreamlike takes. Congrats in advance to Alfonso Cuarón for becoming the first director to not only be nominated for both Best Director and Best Cinematography for the same film but to actually win both.

Best Costume Design

  1. The Favourite – Sandy Powell
  2. Black Panther – Ruth E. Carter
  3. Mary Poppins Returns – Sandy Powell
  4. Mary Queen of Scots – Alexandra Byrne
  5. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs – Mary Zophres

Very tough call between The Favourite and Black Panther. While I think the costumes in Black Panther are eye-popping and stupendous, they almost always go for poofy dresses here, and The Favourite fits that to a T.

Best Film Editing

  1. Bohemian Rhapsody – John Ottman
  2. Vice – Hank Corwin
  3. BlacKkKlansman – Barry Alexander Brown
  4. The Favourite – Yorgos Mavropsaridis
  5. Green Book – Patrick J. Don Vito

What a lineup. I would feel good about Roma or A Star Is Born or First Man here, but none of them are nominated. As of late, the Academy likes either action/war or music-based films in Best Film Editing, so the best bet we have here is Bohemian Rhapsody. Live Aid alone will likely do the trick.

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

  1. Vice – Greg Cannom, Kate Biscoe and Patricia DeHaney
  2. Mary Queen of Scots – Jenny Shircore, Marc Pilcher and Jessica Brooks
  3. Border – Göran Lundström and Pamela Goldammer

This is easily going to Vice, as we have seen with countless Best Picture nominees over the years.

Best Original Score

  1. If Beale Street Could Talk – Nicholas Britell
  2. BlacKkKlansman – Terence Blanchard
  3. Black Panther – Ludwig Göransson
  4. Mary Poppins Returns – Marc Shaiman
  5. Isle of Dogs – Alexandre Desplat

Like Film Editing, this category is a goddamn disaster from a predicting standpoint. None of these scores have won any major precursors unless you count the Grammys, which rewarded the Black Panther score and a track from the BlacKkKlansman score. It’s foolish to go against Best Picture nominees in this category, but the Beale Street score has been singled out and praised to the high heavens, even from those who didn’t respond warmly to the film.

Best Original Song

  1. “Shallow” from A Star Is Born (Lady Gaga, Mark Ronson, Anthony Rossomando and Andrew Wyatt)
  2. “All the Stars” from Black Panther (Kendrick Lamar, SZA, Sounwave and Al Shux)
  3. “I’ll Fight” from RBG (Diane Warren)
  4. “The Place Where Lost Things Go” from Mary Poppins Returns (Marc Shaiman and Scott Wittman)
  5. “When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings” from The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (David Rawlings and Gillian Welch)

The performance of “Shallow” in A Star Is Born was one of the scenes of 2018 for me and many others. It will easily win and become one of the best winners of this decade.

Best Production Design

  1. The Favourite – Fiona Crombie; Alice Felton
  2. Black Panther – Hannah Beachler; Jay Hart
  3. Mary Poppins Returns – John Myhre; Gordon Sim
  4. First Man – Nathan Crowley; Kathy Lucas
  5. Roma – Eugenio Caballero; Bárbara Enríquez

This and Costume Design often go hand in hand, so I’m thinking the showy production of The Favourite has the slight edge. Black Panther has a good chance of winning for its invention of Wakanda, but again, the Academy is often a stuffy bunch.

Best Sound Editing

  1. Black Panther – Benjamin A. Burtt and Steve Boeddeker
  2. Bohemian Rhapsody – John Warhurst and Nina Hartstone
  3. A Quiet Place – Ethan Van der Ryn and Erik Aadahl
  4. First Man – Ai-Ling Lee and Mildred Iatrou Morgan
  5. Roma – Sergio Díaz and Skip Lievsay

Don’t have a clue. The Motion Picture Sound Editors Awards gave trophies to Bohemian Rhapsody and A Quiet Place, but a musical film has never won for sound editing and this is A Quiet Place‘s only nomination. I’m gonna break from the precursors here and just predict Black Panther because it is loud and has prominent sound effects. First Man does too, but based on the shaky reception that film received, I’m not sure it can really pull ahead here.

Best Sound Mixing

  1. Bohemian Rhapsody – Paul Massey, Tim Cavagin and John Casali
  2. A Star Is Born – Tom Ozanich, Dean Zupancic, Jason Ruder and Steve Morrow
  3. Black Panther – Steve Boeddeker, Brandon Proctor and Peter Devlin
  4. Roma – Skip Lievsay, Craig Henighan and José Antonio García
  5. First Man – Jon Taylor, Frank A. Montaño, Ai-Ling Lee and Mary H. Ellis

On the other hand, musical films are embraced in Sound Mixing quite often, so if it’s between Bohemian Rhapsody and A Star Is Born, I look to the Cinema Audio Society, which rewarded Bohemian Rhapsody.

Best Visual Effects

  1. First Man – Paul Lambert, Ian Hunter, Tristan Myles and J.D. Schwalm
  2. Avengers: Infinity War – Dan DeLeeuw, Kelly Port, Russell Earl and Dan Sudick
  3. Ready Player One – Roger Guyett, Grady Cofer, Matthew E. Butler and David Shirk
  4. Solo: A Star Wars Story – Rob Bredow, Patrick Tubach, Neal Scanlan and Dominic Tuohy
  5. Christopher Robin – Christopher Lawrence, Michael Eames, Theo Jones and Chris Corbould

Remember what I said about First Man? Well, here’s the thing. The Academy may not have acknowledged it in a way we expected, but with its competition comprising of films where this is their only nomination, I’m feeling good about its chances. Sure, it only has “supporting” effects compared to the CGI-fests it is nominated against, but they typically go with prestige-y films here.

Best Animated Short Film

  1. Bao – Domee Shi and Becky Neiman-Cobb
  2. Late Afternoon – Louise Bagnall and Nuria González Blanco
  3. One Small Step – Andrew Chesworth and Bobby Pontillas
  4. Weekends – Trevor Jimenez
  5. Animal Behaviour – Alison Snowden and David Fine

Ahh, the short categories. They make or break your Oscar pool every year. Even as someone who watched all of these, it’s impossible to say to what they will actually respond. Of these, I adored the wistful, lyrical Late Afternoon, but Bao was featured ahead of Incredibles 2 so its profile is significantly higher than its competition (plus it is a lovely short of its own).

Best Documentary Short Subject

  1. Period. End of Sentence. – Rayka Zehtabchi and Melissa Berton
  2. Black Sheep – Ed Perkins and Jonathan Chinn
  3. End Game – Rob Epstein and Jeffrey Friedman
  4. Lifeboat – Skye Fitzgerald and Bryn Mooser
  5. A Night at The Garden – Marshall Curry

What will catch the Academy’s fancy this year? I’m going with the important yet hopeful Period. End of Sentence., about enterprising women who provide sanitary pads for their community in India. The other docs here are heavy and mostly depressing, and I’m guessing Academy members will want to feel somewhat hopeful about the world we live in.

Best Live Action Short Film

  1. Marguerite – Marianne Farley and Marie-Hélène Panisset
  2. Fauve – Jeremy Comte and Maria Gracia Turgeon
  3. Skin – Guy Nattiv and Jaime Ray Newman
  4. Detainment – Vincent Lambe and Darren Mahon
  5. Mother – Rodrigo Sorogoyen and María del Puy Alvarado

Speaking of depressing, this year’s Live Action Short lineup is utterly demoralizing in its themes of children in peril. With so many shorts covering similar subject matter, I think the lovely Marguerite, about an elderly woman forming an unexpected connection with her nurse, will benefit.

So there you have it. Those are my Oscar predictions for the 91st Academy Awards. Tune in Sunday at 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT to see how embarrassingly wrong I am!