The time has come! Oscar nominations will be revealed to the world on Monday, Jan. 13, which means all of us in the Oscar pundit world are pulling our hair out over who’s getting in and who’s getting overlooked. This will be an interesting year to watch as the Academy continues to diversify its membership. There are many traditional films from beloved directors in the race this year and actors with decades and decades of work behind them, so we’ll see how many slots they will take up, potentially at the expense of newer voices.
Below you will find my nomination predictions in all 24 categories for the 92nd Academy Awards. See if I’m right by tuning in at 8:18 a.m. EST / 5:18 a.m. PST on Monday when the Oscar nominations are revealed.
BEST PICTURE
Barring any major shockers, 1917, The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit, Marriage Story, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood and Parasite should all be locked and loaded for Best Picture nominations, considering how well they’ve all performed at precursors. Joker is pretty secure as well, but there’s always a chance the more high-brow Academy members will snub it. Those seven in, it’s all about finding the eighth or ninth slots and considering it peaked with box office and internet discourse right in the middle of voting, I feel relatively confident that Little Women is no. 8 in the race. Should there be a ninth film in Best Picture, it’s safe to go with a film that will surely be loved by older male voters, and that’s Ford v Ferrari.
BEST DIRECTOR
There is an assumption based on Sam Mendes, Martin Scorsese, Quentin Tarantino, and Bong Joon-ho getting nominations from DGA, BAFTA, Critics’ Choice and Golden Globes that they’re all locked for Oscar nominations. That’s probably true, though I wouldn’t count out a shocking miss for someone assumed safe, like Scorsese or Tarantino. It’s all about who gets that fifth slot, though, and this has been a head-scratcher for weeks. There are pros and cons to predicting Taika Waititi (Jojo Rabbit), Todd Phillips (Joker), Greta Gerwig (Little Women) and Noah Baumbach (Marriage Story), and it wouldn’t surprise me if any of them made it on nomination morning. For a while I’ve had Gerwig getting the big push to get in but now I’m worried she won’t get enough support over directors with films “higher” in the race. I am going for Waititi because he got nominated for DGA over Phillips, who really should have appealed to that guild, because Jojo Rabbit has been a consistent performer with all guilds, and because this branch loves directors who are able to direct kids, as seen previously by the far-from-locked nominations for Lenny Abrahamson (Room) and Benh Zeitlin (Beasts of the Southern Wild).
BEST ACTOR
Speaking of head-scratchers, Best Actor has been a nightmare to predict all season, with 10 contenders competing for five slots. At this point, I’d argue Adam Driver (Marriage Story) and Joaquin Phoenix (Joker) are the only locks. Leonardo DiCaprio (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood) has been nominated at all four major precursors and will likely be right behind them, though voters might not feel the urgency of voting for him after already rewarding him for The Revenant. I have Taron Egerton (Rocketman) next because the Academy loves biopics and he’s actively campaigning, unlike most of his competitors, and has been nominated just about everywhere else. Though I could see voters going for more late-breaking contenders. Completing the category I have Antonio Banderas (Pain and Glory), the highbrow critics pick who should have more passion votes than people like Christian Bale (Ford v Ferrari) or Jonathan Pryce (The Two Popes).
BEST ACTRESS
Renée Zellweger (Judy) is the only one I’m completely confident in here, though Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story) is pretty close to a lock, despite the Academy never nominating her before. There has been some doubt over Charlize Theron (Bombshell), but she has gotten in at every precursor and completely transformed into Megyn Kelly, so I think actors will find it hard to resist. Beyond those three, good luck. I don’t blame anyone who gets the rest of the category wrong with four strong contenders competing for two slots. Personally, I don’t think Awkwafina (The Farewell) or Cynthia Erivo (Harriet) will have enough passion behind them to get in, though it wouldn’t be too shocking if Awkwafina’s history-making Golden Globe win and speech got her enough last-minute votes. Instead, I’m going with Lupita Nyong’o (Us) because she’s been the undeniable critics pick and made SAG despite stiff competition and Saoirse Ronan (Little Women) because her film will likely be a Best Picture nominee and the Academy has already nominated her three times, so she clearly has fans.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood) and the two Irishman guys, Al Pacino and Joe Pesci, should be all set for nominations, having made it into every precursor. There is some worry that Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood) is vulnerable considering he will likely be the film’s only nomination and they famously snubbed him for Captain Phillips in 2013, but I would argue the field is “weak” enough with few other contenders that he should be solidly in fourth place. Anthony Hopkins (The Two Popes) would seem like the easy fifth slot but I’m going with Song Kang-ho from Parasite. The film got a shocking Best Ensemble nomination at the SAG Awards and it should be a top 3 film contending for Best Picture. Song is a huge part of the film’s success and has worked in the industry for years and years. Of course, there are other out-of-nowhere surprises possible, like Willem Dafoe (The Lighthouse) and Sam Rockwell (Jojo Rabbit).
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Laura Dern (Marriage Story) looks to be the only lock as she marches to Oscar glory. Margot Robbie will definitely be a nominee here, the question is for which film. Bombshell is much likelier because she’s gotten in everywhere else for it, but don’t be surprised if she sneaks in for the film with more Best Picture heat, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. Jennifer Lopez (Hustlers) should be safe, but it’s always risky predicting a performance when it will likely be the film’s only nomination. Scarlett Johansson could pull off the rare double nomination with Jojo Rabbit in Supporting, as the acting representative for a film that’s doing very well with guilds. The final slot is wide open but I’ll go with Florence Pugh (Little Women), who had a strong year and is considered one of the MVPs of a film peaking right in the middle of voting. Holding out hope for a Zhao Shuzhen (The Farewell) surprise.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The writer-friendly Marriage Story, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, and Parasite should all be solidly in. Knives Out is a major box office success and one of the most cleverly drawn films of the year, so Rian Johnson has a strong shot of getting his first Oscar nomination. Once again, the last slot is up in the air but I’m picking The Farewell because of its autobiographical nature, with Lulu Wang likely to have goodwill in the industry. But I could easily imagine it going to one of the other WGA nominees, 1917 or Booksmart.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The top contenders here are easily The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit, and Little Women, and it’s arguably an open race to see which of them will ultimately win. Right underneath is Joker, which will likely have detractors but probably a lot of passionate lovers as well. The Two Popes was ruled an original screenplay at WGA but still couldn’t even get in there, so Anthony McCarten is vulnerable but the film is completely driven by its script so I’m confident in it. If this isn’t the lineup I will be truly shocked, with only A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood and Hustlers as other possibilities.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Hard to bet against the box office power and critical acclaim of the three sequels, Frozen II, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, and Toy Story 4. Missing Link shockingly won the Golden Globe over all of them but its studio, Laika, is beloved and campaigning hard. There are a few other films that could finish out the category, like Abominable and Klaus, but I have I Lost My Body as the highbrow indie pick. A somewhat weak year for original animated features.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
I feel pretty good about American Factory, For Sama, Honeyland, and One Child Nation, all of which have cleaned up with precursor documentary awards and are among the most buzz-worthy docs of the year. It would be easy to pick Apollo 11 too, but it’s very clear at this point how much this branch bristles at docs that primarily rely on archival footage, and that’s all Apollo 11 is. It may be the most rewarded doc of the year but so were Won’t You Be My Neighbor and Jane, which were both snubbed. Instead I’m predicting The Cave, about a female doctor in the middle of the Syrian Civil War, which comes from a director previously embraced here for Last Men in Aleppo.
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
Parasite (South Korea) and Pain and Glory (Spain) are locked. Beyond that, I would imagine Les Misérables is close to a lock because France does very well and it’s about social issues. Next up is probably Atlantics (Senegal) because it has universal elements from a love story to striking cinematography. Not entirely sure what could take the fifth slot, but I’m going with Corpus Christi (Poland) because it is accessible and a bit of a crowd-pleaser.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
1917 is the only one I’m super confident in, and I will congratulate Roger Deakins in advance for his second Oscar. Then I look to BAFTA and the American Society of Cinematographers, which both nominated Ford v Ferrari, The Irishman, and Joker. I’m tempted to go with Once Upon a Time in Hollywood but it’s not exactly the most showy camera work, while The Lighthouse is black and white and uses a vintage aspect ratio. Should be catnip for the cinematographers branch.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
So much showy costume design among Dolemite Is My Name, Jojo Rabbit, Little Women, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, and Rocketman that I really can’t see any other film breaking in. The Irishman is possible because Sandy Powell and I suppose we shouldn’t count out Downton Abbey.
BEST FILM EDITING
Feeling good about Ford v Ferrari and The Irishman, even despite the latter’s long running time. There are a number of flashy sequences in Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, too. Non-English language films rarely get in here but those who have seen Parasite should see it as a major editing showcase. The last slot could go to either Jojo Rabbit or Joker and I imagine the thriller aspects of Joker might just be enough to land here.
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
First of all, thanks to the Academy for finally expanding this category from three slots to five! More is better when it comes to these craft categories, so Bombshell should easily be nominated and will easily win. A lot of makeup and hair work done on Renée Zellweger in Judy and word is that a focus of the Academy makeup presentation was how difficult it was to work with Joaquin Phoenix on Joker, so I imagine the team will get sympathy. Rocketman has a variety of different makeup/hair to track Elton John’s career over decades. In the final slot I have Maleficent: Mistress of Evil because there’s almost always one sci-fi/fantasy film in this category and all the prosthetic work could get it in, not unlike Guardians of the Galaxy and Star Trek Beyond in the past.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
It will be a race to the win for 1917 and Joker, with diametrical opposed narratives. Thomas Newman (1917) is the most overdue composer working while Hildur Guðnadóttir (Joker) would be the rare female composer to win. Academy favorites Alexandre Desplat (Little Women) and John Williams (Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker) will expectedly add another nomination to their totals. Once again, the fifth slot is tough. Many have Randy Newman predicted for his Marriage Story score, but the way people talk about it, there is a divisive quality to it that reminds me of what people said about First Man last year, which was shockingly snubbed. Instead I’m picking Jojo Rabbit, which comes from past winner Michael Giacchino and has a childlike whimsy to it that could be memorable for voters.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Original Song is beyond weak this year. I would argue that any of last year’s nominees could’ve won over whatever becomes this year’s lineup. The only guarantees here are Globes winner “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” (Rocketman) and “Into the Unknown” (Frozen II). Otherwise, good luck. My hope-dicting comes into play here with “Glasgow” from Wild Rose, but I truly just think it’s undeniably one of the best songs on the shortlist, regardless of how little-seen it is. Let’s go, Mary Steenburgen! This branch also loves blandly inspirational songs so “Stand Up” from Harriet makes sense, and whenever Diane Warren is in contention, I’m predicting her, so congrats in advance to the team from Breakthrough, a film that technically exists. Would love to predict Beyonce for “Spirit” (The Lion King) but something just tells me they’ll turn up their noses.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Look at all those Best Picture nominees. It’s not always wise to omit non-BP films from craft categories, but there is so much detail in all of these films. Maybe Ford v Ferrari or Joker get in here, but all the period detail in 1917, The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit, and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood will make it difficult, plus Parasite has all the complexities of that beautiful house. I think Once Upon a Time in Hollywood will ultimately win this.
BEST SOUND EDITING
Loud is better in the Best Sound Editing category, so the sound effects-driven 1917, Ford v Ferrari, and Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker are easy picks. Avengers: Endgame is a risky one because other than Black Panther, the sound branch is hesitant about Marvel films outside of Best Visual Effects, but there is extraordinary technical craft there and it’s the biggest film of the year. Rounding out the category I have Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, which isn’t quite a showcase in that regard but has a number of action sequences that should make it irresistible with this group.
BEST SOUND MIXING
Overlapping 4/5 with Sound Editing, 1917, Ford v Ferrari, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, and Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker all combine a huge number of sounds to great effect, from dialogue to music to effects. As for the other nominee, it is foolish to go against big musicals in Sound Mixing, and that’s Rocketman this year.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Hard to bet against the stunning work being done in Avengers: Endgame, The Irishman, The Lion King, and Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker. Many are predicting 1917 to get the final slot because of its Best Picture heat but I cannot ignore Alita: Battle Angel with its tying The Lion King for the most Visual Effects Society nominations this year.
BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM
Now we get to the short categories, which make or break your prediction scores. Don’t trust me as an authority on this, just going with instincts here. Hair Love, Kitbull, The Physics of Sorrow, Sister, and Uncle Thomas: Accounting for the Days.
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
Ditto. Fire in Paradise, Ghosts of Sugar Land, In the Absence, Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (if you’re a girl), and Walk Run Cha-Cha. Or it could be none of those.
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
And here we have Brotherhood, The Christmas Gift, Little Hands, The Neighbors’ Window, and Refugee. Sure!
I have Once Upon a Time in Hollywood leading all films with 10 nominations, followed by The Irishman at nine, then 1917, Jojo Rabbit, Joker, and Parasite all getting seven. Sound right to you? Sound off in the comments!