The Emmy race for Best Drama Series is the most competitive it has been in years with HBO’s Game of Thrones out of the running.
While millions of Game of Thrones fans all over the world may be bummed that Season 7 has not yet aired on HBO, the other major TV networks are probably thanking their lucky stars. Considering no episodes aired within the Emmy eligibility window of June 1, 2016 to May 31, 2017, Game of Thrones cannot be nominated at the Emmys this year, opening up a lot of categories on the drama side.
The Best Drama Series category is really the one to watch, considering Game of Thrones won it for the past two years. We are bound to get a new winner in this category, assuming Showtime’s aging Homeland, which won in 2012, doesn’t pull off a massive upset. This year’s winner could be anything from a sci-fi show like Stranger Things or Westworld to a drama with international flavor like The Americans or The Crown, or a down-to-earth show like Better Call Saul or This Is Us.
With nominations less than a month away, here are my Emmy predictions for the top 10 shows that could get nominated for Best Drama Series. Keep in mind that there are seven slots in this category, so the top seven are my predicted nominees, while the other three are knocking on the door.
Predicted Nominees
1. Stranger Things
Stranger Things has dominated pop culture in a way that few Netflix shows ever have, becoming a genuine sensation thanks to its charming cast of kids, its likable Steven Spielbergian plot, and its irresistible ’80s nostalgia. It has made a star out of Millie Bobby Brown, who plays Eleven in the series, and served as a proper comeback for the criminally underrated Winona Ryder.
While the Emmys have traditionally shied away from genre shows (to the point of ignoring all-time greats like Buffy the Vampire Slayer and Battlestar Galactica), they have gradually come around in recent years. In addition to rewarding Game of Thrones, they gave Orphan Black star Tatiana Maslany Best Actress in a Drama Series, and have given many Emmys to American Horror Story. The biggest reason I put Stranger Things at no. 1 here, though, is because the industry has already embraced it, with both the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) and the Producers Guild of America (PGA) awarding it with their top drama prizes. Look for a big showing on Emmy nomination morning.
Stream all eight episodes of Stranger Things on Netflix.
2. The Crown
From one Netflix show to another, I have The Crown in the no. 2 position for being exactly what the Emmys eat up. This show has everything: the British monarchy, elaborate costumes, big speeches, Emmy-winning actors, and a young ingenue at the center. Depending on your taste it’s either classy and elegant or snobby and elitist, but it’s exactly what appeals to voters who fell in love with Downton Abbey.
Claire Foy, who plays Queen Elizabeth, has won the Golden Globe and the SAG Award, while John Lithgow won a SAG Award himself for playing Winston Churchill. The Crown is very much in the race to not only get nominated but win Best Drama Series, but its buzz may have faded from the public sphere since debuting in November, compared to the ever-presence of Stranger Things.
Stream the first season of The Crown on Netflix.
3. This Is Us
Rounding out the trifecta of new shows I think will score big at the Emmys is This Is Us, NBC’s breakout family drama. Networks have struggled immensely in recent years to keep up with cable and streaming, whose shows often have more creative freedom, less restrictions, and higher budgets. They’ve suffered at the Emmys, too. The last network show to be nominated for Best Drama Series was CBS’s The Good Wife on CBS in 2011, and no network series has been able to break through in such a way since. Until now.
This Is Us became an unexpected phenomenon when in premiered in September, telling the simple story of a family going through the joys and struggles of everyday life. With relatable plot lines, tearjerking moments, and a richly talented cast that includes Milo Ventimiglia, Mandy Moore, Sterling K. Brown, Chrissy Metz, and Justin Hartley, America simply fell in love with the Pearson family. The show has also done well with precursors, winning a Writers Guild of America (WGA) Award and scoring multiple Golden Globe nominations, and Emmy voters who work for networks will surely rally around the success story of the series.
Watch the first season of This Is Us on Amazon.
4. The Americans
The comparison has been made several times by notable TV critics, but The Americans, a show about Russian spies in America, did reach a new level of resonance in 2017 amid the ongoing investigation of Russian collusion with the Trump presidency. This resonance may not have added a swath of new viewers to the critically acclaimed but low-rated series, but it will only help when Emmy go to fill out their ballots this month.
The Americans broke through last year for Season 4 after years of snubs, getting into Best Drama Series, Best Lead Actor for Matthew Rhys and Best Lead Actress for Keri Russell. Despite its subject matter, the FX drama is a very understated show with subtle acting and deliberate pacing, so it may be tough to get the votes needed to win, but if any returning show could pull it off in a year without Game of Thrones, it’s The Americans.
Watch Season 5 of The Americans on Amazon (with the first four seasons available for free on Amazon Prime).
5. Better Call Saul
Better Call Saul seems like the kind of show that will always be nominated in top categories like Best Drama Series but never actually win. Emmy voters took to the Breaking Bad prequel right at the start, giving it seven nominations for Season 1 and another seven in Season 2, but it has yet to actually win any of its categories. This year brought new attention to the AMC series with the arrival of Breaking Bad fan favorite Gus Fring (Giancarlo Esposito), while Jimmy (Bob Odenkirk) continued to morph into Saul Goodman, the character we met him as in Breaking Bad.
While Better Call Saul may not be strong enough to be a major threat to win, its base of fans within the Television Academy should not be underestimated in terms of nominations.
Stream Season 3 of Better Call Saul on Amazon (with Seasons 1 and 2 available to stream on Netflix).
6. House of Cards
The third Netflix show I predict will get Emmy nominated this year is House of Cards, which will be its fifth nomination in a row. Despite being one of Netflix’s first shows and having a strong Emmy-baity premise, it has really underperformed in terms of wins — from 46 nominations over four seasons it has only won six Emmys. Yet, much like Better Call Saul, the show continues to be nominated every year in major categories and even though I’ve fallen out of love with it, there are plenty of fans who still adore the political drama.
Season 5 saw House of Cards focusing significantly on the presidential election, with Frank Underwood (Kevin Spacey) doing whatever it took to maintain his presidency, even if others had to die. Robin Wright’s Claire Underwood also stepped into the spotlight in a major way, making her own ascent throughout the season. House of Cards is getting older, which is often a bad thing for most shows at the Emmys, but I think voters will give it at least one more nomination here for its parallels to real life, much like The Americans.
Watch House of Cards Season 5 on Netflix (in addition to Seasons 1 through 4).
7. The Handmaid’s Tale
And now for the risky pick. Hulu’s The Handmaid’s Tale has given the streaming service the critically acclaimed prestige show it has longed for, and it could pay off for them. Hulu has struggled to produce original shows on the level of Netflix’s many nominated series but The Handmaid’s Tale, adapted from the book about a dystopian future where fertile women are forced to live as concubines under the leadership of a religious dictatorship, has become a major success for them.
The Handmaid’s Tale boasts a strong ensemble that includes Elisabeth Moss, Ann Dowd, Joseph Fiennes, Yvonne Strahovski, Alexis Bledel, and Samira Wiley, and Moss’ soul-bearing performance could earn her her first Emmy. The series can be brutal to watch, but its power could be exactly what Hulu needs to earn its first Best Drama Series nomination.
Stream the first season of The Handmaid’s Tale on Hulu.
Close but no cigar
8. Westworld
Many Emmy predictions have Westworld in the Best Drama Series lineup, but it may end up being the surprise “snub” of Emmy nomination morning. Westworld has many appealing factors on paper, including an all-star cast (Anthony Hopkins, Evan Rachel Wood, Thandie Newton, Jeffrey Wright, James Marsden, Ed Harris among others), beautiful production values and a clever concept. It also had good reviews from critics, spawned several podcasts, and kept fans guessing about who was a human and who was an android. It’s done pretty well with industry awards, too, though it hasn’t won anything major.
So why am I not predicting Westworld to get into Best Drama Series? Frankly, it’s a gut feeling. Emmy voters may be embracing genre shows now, but Game of Thrones is about kings, queens, and lovable rogues. Westworld is about robots. Will all those older voters in the Academy really go for it? It also aired its season finale in December, and while shows like Stranger Things and The Crown ended sooner, their positive factors as mentioned above should be enough to transcend this lengthy time off. Are people still talking about Westworld now? Not really. It may be a risk considering HBO has almost always had at least one show in the Best Drama Series race, but it may split votes with another Emmy contender further down this list.
Watch Westworld Season 1 on HBO through Amazon.
9. Homeland
Homeland has been on shaky ground at the Emmys since the polarizing third season, where it did not get nominated for Best Drama Series just two years after it won. Thankfully for Showtime the series managed to rebound with a nomination for Season 4 and last year for Season 5. Emmy voters are clearly still watching the show enough for it to always be a contender, but it is now competing for its sixth season. This is older than any other major contender in this category, and voters may be more wowed by the shiny, new shows mentioned above.
It wouldn’t be entirely surprising to see Homeland here again if voters haven’t seen a bunch of the new shows that premiered this TV season. Yet, this is such a competitive year where so many buzzy shows are angling for nominations that it might just get lost in the shuffle.
Watch Season 6 of Homeland on Showtime through Amazon (with the first five seasons also available).
10. The Leftovers
In what may be the most obvious example of personal bias on this list, I believe The Leftovers does have a shot of making it into Best Drama Series. Not a strong shot, but a shot nonetheless. Emmy voters have completely rejected the show in the past, snubbing it entirely for its first two seasons, but this third and final season could finally inspire Academy members to give it the love it deserves. Sometimes it takes a few years for the Emmys to catch on. They ignored Everybody Loves Raymond for two years before ultimately showering it with far too many Emmys. Friday Night Lights finally received a Drama Series nomination in its fifth and final season. They barely knew The Americans existed before last year.
The Leftovers is also an HBO show, and it aired in the traditional Game of Thrones timeslot this spring. It doesn’t have nearly the same viewership as Game of Thrones, but exposure in these late-in-the-season months can only help it. Getting into the series itself, it was an ambitious and monumental final season that spanned continents and crafted beautiful episodes centered on grief and closure on the seven-year anniversary of the Sudden Departure. Justin Theroux, Carrie Coon, Christopher Eccleston, and Amy Brenneman all gave excellent performances and series creators Damon Lindelof and Tom Perrotta crafted a thought-provoking, ambiguous ending that will surely be remembered. It’s now or never for The Leftovers, but I think there could be enough fans in the Academy who are finally on board and ready to give it some love.
Catch the final season of The Leftovers on HBO through Amazon (along with the first two seasons).
Longshot contenders include past nominees Mr. Robot and Orange Is the New Black and new shows American Gods, The Good Fight, and Legion.
See if my Emmy predictions are correct when the Television Academy announces its nominations on July 13.