FINAL Oscar Nominations Predictions for 2018

Here we are. We are now in the final days before Oscar nomination morning, and awards pundits are furiously logging and changing their predictions for what the Academy will deem the best in 2018 film. I know I am speaking for a lot of my fellow awards obsessives when I say this has been one of the most unpredictable races in quite some time, as films like Widows and Beautiful Boy faded from lofty Oscar ambitions while Bohemian Rhapsody and Green Book have surged.

This will be a fun nominations morning if only to see the major trends that speak to what the industry is valuing in 2019. It was a great year for films about the black experience, starting at the top with the record-breaking Black Panther to indies like If Beale Street Could Talk, BlacKkKlansman, Blindspotting, and Sorry to Bother You. In the wake of the Academy’s crisis about popular films not being acknowledged anymore, we could easily see a surge in such films being rewarded, including Black Panther, A Star Is Born, Bohemian Rhapsody and A Quiet Place. Then there’s the Netflix factor, with Roma sure to become the first film from the mega-company to break through in a major way at the Oscars.

Here are my FINAL Oscar nomination predictions for the year, with a brief explanation under each category about my rationale.

Best Picture

Roma, A Star Is Born and BlacKkKlansman are pretty locked and loaded, with The Favourite and Green Book not far behind. Those I could see being a shocking snub are Black Panther and Vice, the former because of latent superhero bias and the latter for its mixed reviews. I have Bohemian Rhapsody here despite its own share of mixed reviews because it has proven to be a strong player with precursors. Finally, there’s If Beale Street Could Talk, which has performed weaker than than these other films but should get in on passion.

Best Director

Barring a major shocker, Cuarón, Cooper and Lee should be in. It’s difficult to parse if the Directors Branch will carry over McKay and Green Book director Peter Farrelly from the DGA noms, but my guess is the flashy direction of Vice and the nightmare of a week for Green Book during voting will help the former get in. I have Lanthimos getting into that final spot because of The Favourite‘s strength and the uniqueness of his vision.

Best Actor

You could say this is the consensus five now that all the precursors have released their nominees, with Bale, Cooper and Malek the most set in stone. Mortensen got into all four major precursors (Critics’ Choice, Golden Globes, SAG and BAFTA), but Green Book’s controversy, to which he partly contributed, could cost him. Then there’s Washington, who should get in on the strength of BlacKkKlansman and his family legacy. There is an outside shot for critics favorites Ethan Hawke (First Reformed) and Willem Dafoe (At Eternity’s Gate) if Mortensen and/or Washington fail to spark passion.

Best Actress

Everyone’s favorite category has pretty much settled into Close, Colman, Gaga and McCarthy, who have all gotten into the four precursors and earned much critical acclaim. It’s all about that fifth slot, which is largely seen as a battle between Aparicio for Roma and Emily Blunt for Mary Poppins Returns. Blunt shockingly missed a BAFTA nomination and for such an iconic role as Mary Poppins, which leads me to believe she’s more of a lightweight contender than once assumed. Aparicio may not have shown up at many precursors but she is the lead of a potential Best Picture winner and carries much of the film’s emotional weight, plus she’s been campaigning heavily.

Best Supporting Actor

I’m playing it safe in Best Supporting Actor. Ali, Chalamet, Driver and Grant have been nominated everywhere, and I think they all inspire enough passion or come from strong enough movies that they should be in. Chalamet is the least likely considering Beautiful Boy won’t be nominated elsewhere, but that’s a very baity role. Finally there’s Elliott, who hasn’t done quite as well with precursors but is the prime opportunity to finally nominate a veteran after decades of strong character work. Sam Rockwell (Vice) and Michael B. Jordan (Black Panther) have a chance, but I don’t see either inspiring enough no. 1 votes to get in.

Best Supporting Actress

People have been predicting this exact five since October, but it really looks like it could play out that way. Adams, Stone and Weisz have gotten in everywhere, while King has won the Critics’ Choice and Golden Globe, while not showing up at SAG or BAFTA. Regardless, there should be enough excitement for her to get in. Then there’s that damn fifth slot that has been plaguing us for weeks. There’s Emily Blunt (A Quiet Place), Margot Robbie (Mary Queen of Scots), Nicole Kidman (Boy Erased) and even Thomasin McKenzie (Leave No Trace) as possibilities, but i’m defaulting back to Foy, who has a classic supportive wife role and had a significant year in the spotlight, even if her films didn’t exactly take off at the box office.

Best Original Screenplay

A bit of a tough one, especially with First Reformed and A Quiet Place waiting in the wings. I think The Favourite, Green Book (despite controversies), Roma and Vice are solidly in because of Best Picture traction, leaving just one slot. There seems to now be at least one indie fave that gets in here, like The Big Sick or The Lobster, so I’m going with Eighth Grade, whose screenwriter Bo Burnham is less of a curmudgeon than First Reformed‘s Paul Schrader.

Best Adapted Screenplay

I’d wager BlacKkKlansman, Can You Ever Forgive Me? and If Beale Street Could Talk are in, with A Star Is Born a step behind because it isn’t quite as writer-friendly. Again it comes down to that fifth slot, and here’s where I think the Academy could acknowledge one of the most acclaimed films of 2018 that also happens to be helmed by a woman, Debra Granik, in Leave No Trace. It’s going to be tough, with Black Panther, The Death of Stalin and First Man among other possibilities, but I have a feeling it will at least show up somewhere.

Best Animated Feature

The Disney contingent should get Incredibles 2 and Ralph Breaks the Internet in safely, while Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse and Isle of Dogs are strong critic favorites. The last slot could very well go to a bigger film like The Grinch or Smallfoot but I’m predicting Mirai because it has gotten multiple nominations along the way so far, including the Golden Globes, who don’t normally go for anime-style films.

Best Documentary Feature

It was a high-profile year for documentaries, with films like Won’t You Be My Neighbor?, Free Solo, Three Identical Strangers and RBG making a big splash. I have the first three getting in but not RBG because I’m afraid it might be seen as a bit too traditional and perhaps reverential to its subject. Minding the Gap has been cleaning up with nominations thus far so I think it’s easily in. This category tends to throw a curveball so I’m picking Hale County This Morning, This Evening because, despite its low profile, it has picked up wins from the Gotham Awards and Cinema Eye Honors, so we know it has its supporters.

Best Foreign Language Film

Best Foreign Language Film is filled with contenders of great acclaim and I’m playing it safe by picking the five most high-profile and awarded: Burning, from South Korea, Capernaum, from Lebanon, Cold War, from Poland, Roma, from Mexico, and Shoplifters, from Japan. I could see Never Look Away sneaking in because its director helmed 2006’s Foreign Language Film winner The Lives of Others, but its three-hour runtime might be too daunting.

Best Cinematography

This branch typically goes with what was picked at the American Society of Cinematographers Awards, and this year that includes: Cold War, First Man, Roma and A Star Is Born. They also picked The Favourite, but I’m going out on a limb and predicting they might not love the show-offy fish-eye lens work there and instead go for the lush cinematography of If Beale Street Could Talk.

Best Costume Design

The Favourite and Mary Queen of Scots are locked and loaded, as the type of European costume drama nominees that get in every year. Black Panther and Mary Poppins Returns have extravagant costumes too bold to ignore. Bohemian Rhapsody is coming on strong with guilds, and I imagine all of Freddie Mercury’s outfits will help it get in here.

Best Film Editing

The category was a headache to figure out. This is perhaps the one craft category I could see getting mostly wrong, but I’m going purely on the strength of BlacKkKlansman, Roma and A Star Is Born as our top three Best Picture contenders. Beyond that, Vice is so obviously edited that it would be shocking for it to miss, while First Man has multiple tense action sequences. Films like Bohemian Rhapsody and The Favourite could get in easily, as they too have flashy editing. Ugh.

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

Makeup and Hairstyling is also a bitch to predict, because they rarely care about the quality of the film. My best guess is that the bumps on Killmonger and the various hairstyles in Black Panther should be enough for it to get in, while Vice heavily makes up pretty much every character, and we see Best Actor frontrunners get their film in here quite often and even win (Darkest Hour, Dallas Buyers Club). For the last spot I’m picking Border, as the prosthetic, foreign choice that also tends to do well here.

Best Original Score

Another category I agonized over. For me, this came down to six contenders: the five pictured above and Black Panther. As two of the most lauded scores of the year, First Man and If Beale Street Could Talk are definitely in. Alexandre Desplat is a huge Academy favorite and Isle of Dogs is a distinct score, so I think that’s in, too. Mary Poppins Returns is an original musical with a melodic score. Then there’s BlacKkKlansman, which has a somewhat memorable score that I think could also be helped by Terence Blanchard never being nominated before and the film being a top three contender, like when Three Billboards got in here last year. I went against Black Panther because even though it’s a great score, it might be too different from what they typically go for here.

Best Original Song

Very confident in “Shallow” and “All the Stars,” which were even nominated at the Grammys for Record of the Year. Diane Warren gets in almost every year, so her “I’ll Fight” might as well, too. Things get tricky from there, but I think the centerpiece song from Mary Poppins, “Trip a Little Light Fantastic” could get in over the forgettable “The Place Where Lost Things Go.” Finally I have “Girl in the Movies” by Dolly Parton because Dolly Parton.

Best Production Design

There aren’t many categories I feel good about with all five predicted nominees, but this is one of them. All five are major production design achievements in their own ways, between Black Panther creating the entire world of Wakanda, The Favourite‘s lavishly adorned rooms, First Man recreating the moon landing, Mary Poppins Returns‘ numerous detailed set pieces, and Roma recreating 1970s Mexico from Cuarón’s memories.

Best Sound Editing

While Marvel movies do struggle to get into the sound categories, I think the success of Black Panther could just be enough to get it in. First Man and A Quiet Place are strong contenders that showcase sound in a significant way, and while Ready Player One isn’t quite a Best Picture player, it is a Spielberg film with heavy use of sound at the end of the day. Then there’s Roma, which is not the type of film that tends to get in here but is a Best Picture frontrunner that contains masterful use of soundscapes.

Best Sound Mixing

The Sound Mixing category loves integration of music, so I would expect Best Picture favorites like Bohemian Rhapsody and A Star Is Born will be nominated. Black Panther, First Man and A Quiet Place also heavily feature music mixed in well with dialogue and effects. Mary Poppins Returns may get in for one or both sound categories, but I suspect it will underperform on the whole and it’s just too competitive.

Best Visual Effects

Visual Effects is always fun. The Visual Effects Society went 5/5 with this category last year, but I’m predicting at least one from this year’s VES nominees will mess, and that’s the panned Welcome to Marwen. Otherwise, I expect Avengers: Infinity War, Christopher Robin, Ready Player One and Solo: A Star Wars Story will transfer over naturally. In that fifth slot I have Black Panther because of the film itself, even though its effects received a mixed reception.

Best Animated Short Film

As always, these are up in the air. *shrugs*

Best Documentary Short Subject

*shrugs again*

Best Live Action Short Film

*shrugs a third time*

So, will my predictions prove correct? Tune in Tuesday at 8:20 a.m. ET / 5:20 a.m. PT when the Oscar nominations will be revealed by Kumail Nanjiani and Tracee Ellis Ross.