The first televised award event of the season is the Golden Globes, which air this Sunday on NBC. If you’re feeling overwhelmed by this year’s race, you’re not alone. This is one of the most competitive races in recent memory on both the film and TV side. While I am very prepared to be wrong about more than a few, here are my predictions for the 75th Golden Globes in the film categories.
BEST PICTURE – DRAMA
Call Me by Your Name
Dunkirk
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Winner Prediction: The Shape of Water
Darkhorse: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
It’s very clear based on their broad support that this race will come down to The Post, The Shape of Water and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. I am predicting The Shape of Water because it leads all other films, with seven nominations, and it also has the feel of past Globes winners here. They love the sweeping, often romantic epics even if they don’t win Best Picture at the Oscars, like The Hours, The Aviator, Brokeback Mountain, Atonement and The Revenant, and The Shape of Water fills that slot here.
BEST PICTURE – COMEDY OR MUSICAL
The Disaster Artist
Get Out
The Greatest Showman
I, Tonya
Lady Bird
Winner Prediction: Lady Bird
Darkhorse: Get Out
Lady Bird has been the talk of Hollywood, for its (at one time) perfect Rotten Tomatoes score, its spectacular cast and its charming look at teenage life. It is also the only film here to get into a Director or Screenplay category, indicating broader support. Get Out could upset, but the lack of a nomination for Jordan Peele in either Director or Screenplay is damning.
BEST ACTOR – DRAMA
Timothee Chalamet – Call Me by Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis – Phantom Thread
Tom Hanks – The Post
Gary Oldman – Darkest Hour
Denzel Washington – Roman J. Israel, Esq.
Winner Prediction: Gary Oldman
Darkhorse: Timothée Chalamet
Gary Oldman once insulted the Golden Globes, claiming they were “bent” and easily charmed by celebrities. That’s why this will be his biggest hurdle for his heralded portrayal of Winston Churchill, but the Globes have always gone with the more obvious acting as opposed to subtlety, so he probably wins here. But if voters still carry a grudge against him, watch out for the charming Timothée Chalamet, who has become a real critics’ favorite this season.
BEST ACTRESS – DRAMA
Jessica Chastain – Molly’s Game
Sally Hawkins – The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Meryl Streep – The Post
Michelle Williams – All the Money in the World
Winner Prediction: Sally Hawkins
Darkhorse: Frances McDormand
I think whichever film wins Best Picture – Drama also takes Actress, so I’m going with Sally Hawkins for her performance as a mute woman who falls in love with an amphibian man in The Shape of Water. We know they like her, too, having rewarded her in 2008 for Happy-Go-Lucky. I’ve seen many predictions for Frances McDormand but they clearly don’t like her, not even rewarding her for her Oscar-winning role in Fargo or her Emmy-winning role in Olive Kitteridge. Still, she is in a movie they love so she may finally get her first Globe.
BEST ACTOR – COMEDY OR MUSICAL
Steve Carell – Battle of the Sexes
Ansel Elgort – Baby Driver
James Franco – The Disaster Artist
Hugh Jackman – The Greatest Showman
Daniel Kaluuya – Get Out
Winner Prediction: James Franco
Darkhorse: Daniel Kaluuya
James Franco is the kind of fun Hollywood star the Globes adore, and he gives the most overt acting performance here, transforming himself to play Tommy Wiseau. They previously gave him a Globe for playing James Dean in the TV movie of the same name. Daniel Kaluuya may be in the hunt, too, especially with this being the only other opportunity to reward Get Out.
BEST ACTRESS – COMEDY OR MUSICAL
Judi Dench – Victoria & Abdul
Helen Mirren – The Leisure Seeker
Margot Robbie – I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan – Lady Bird
Emma Stone – Battle of the Sexes
Winner Prediction: Saoirse Ronan
Darkhorse: Margot Robbie
This is a tough one, since we know they love both Lady Bird and I, Tonya. Plus, both stars are young, charming actresses that come from foreign countries, which appeal directly to their sensibilities. Ultimately I’m going with the more beloved film and saying Saoirse Ronan takes this. The Globes are suckers for actors they’ve watched grow up in the industry, and Ronan is a prime example of this, having nominated her in 2007 when she was just 13 years old for Atonement.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Willem Dafoe – The Florida Project
Armie Hammer – Call Me by Your Name
Richard Jenkins – The Shape of Water
Christopher Plummer – All the Money in the World
Sam Rockwell – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Winner Prediction: Christopher Plummer
Darkhorse: Sam Rockwell
This is another tough race, with all but Richard Jenkins having a great shot at this. Willem Dafoe and Sam Rockwell have been eating up all the critical support, but the latter is in the more beloved film here. Armie Hammer is that young star with good looks they love, but it isn’t the most acclaimed performance. The one flashing sign here is Christopher Plummer, who famously replaced Kevin Spacey in All the Money in the World. It would just be such a Globes thing to do to get him up on that stage and snatch headlines.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Mary J. Blige – Mudbound
Hong Chau – Downsizing
Allison Janney – I, Tonya
Laurie Metcalf – Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer – The Shape of Water
Winner Prediction: Laurie Metcalf
Darkhorse: Allison Janney
Laurie Metcalf is subtly brilliant in Lady Bird, and she has won the lion’s share of Supporting Actress prizes this year. Allison Janney is a major contender considering she is doing the ~*most acting*~ and they love her, but I think if they can reward Patricia Arquette for Boyhood they’ll have no trouble rewarding Metcalf in a similar role.
BEST DIRECTOR
Guillermo del Toro – The Shape of Water
Martin McDonagh – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Christopher Nolan – Dunkirk
Ridley Scott – All the Money in the World
Steven Spielberg – The Post
Winner Prediction: Guillermo del Toro
Darkhorse: Christopher Nolan
This will be a battle of the two huge directorial achievements of the year, Dunkirk and The Shape of Water. Christopher Nolan has been the presumed frontrunner all season, but Guillermo del Toro directed the more beloved movie (based on nominations here) and he has the international appeal as Mexican filmmaker that should edge him over the top.
BEST SCREENPLAY
Guillermo del Toro and Vanessa Taylor – The Shape of Water
Greta Gerwig – Lady Bird
Liz Hannah and Josh Singer – The Post
Martin McDonagh – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Aaron Sorkin – Molly’s Game
Winner Prediction: Martin McDonagh
Darkhorse: Greta Gerwig
Screenplay could go any which way, and while I have Lady Bird sweeping Picture, Actress and Supporting Actress, I don’t think they’ll want to go 4-for-4. While Greta Gerwig is definitely someone I could see them wanting onstage, I think this will be the sole win for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. Martin McDonagh may not be as known but he is well-liked in the indie world.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
The Boss Baby
The Breadwinner
Coco
Ferdinand
Loving Vincent
Winner Prediction: Coco
Darkhorse: None
It’s Coco. There’s no way another film is winning here.
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
A Fantastic Woman
First They Killed My Father
In the Fade
Loveless
The Square
Winner Prediction: The Square
Darkhorse: First They Killed My Father
I’m tempted to go with First They Killed My Father considering it would be a chance to get Angelina Jolie up onstage, but I’m predicting The Square because it has the most critic love of any other film here.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Carter Burwell – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Alexandre Desplat – The Shape of Water
Jonny Greenwood – Phantom Thread
John Williams – The Post
Hans Zimmer – Dunkirk
Winner Prediction: Jonny Greenwood
Darkhorse: Alexandre Desplat
A lot of heavy-hitters here. I’ve been predicting Alexandre Desplat for a long time but I don’t think The Shape of Water is winning four awards. Even though Phantom Thread is the only film not nominated for Picture here, his work is so distinctive and he is a bit of a star himself, as one of the members of Radiohead.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Home” from Ferdinand – Music by Nick Jonas, Justin Tranter and Nick Monson; Lyrics by Nick Jonas and Justin Tranter
“Mighty River” from Mudbound – Music by Raphael Saadiq; Lyrics by Mary J. Blige, Raphael Saadiq and Taura Stinson
“Remember Me” from Coco – Music and Lyrics by Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez
“The Star” from The Star – Music and Lyrics by Mariah Carey and Marc Shaiman
“This Is Me” from The Greatest Showman – Music and Lyrics by Benj Pasek and Justin Paul
Winner Prediction: “Remember Me”
Darkhorse: “Mighty River”
This is a risk considering they love rewarding big stars in Original Song, but “Remember Me” is so distinct, simple and iconic that I think it can overcome its lack of star power. “Mighty River” may be their opportunity to reward Mary J. Blige, though, who is also nominated in Best Supporting Actress.
***Television category predictions to come Saturday***