Film Trophies
Oscars October
Warner Bros.

Oscar Predictions 2018 – Top Eight Categories

October 1, 2018 Kevin Jacobsen Oscars 0

October has finally arrived, which signals the proper beginning of award season. Studios like Warner Bros., Universal, Fox Searchlight, Sony Pictures Classics, A24 and more will be releasing their big awards contenders over the next few months as they attempt to court Oscar voters for the upcoming 91st Academy Awards.

With most of the major contenders having screened at festivals or come out earlier in the year, Oscar prognosticators are now revealing their first predictions of the season. Here’s what I have predicted for the top eight categories (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor, Best Supporting Actress, Best Original Screenplay and Best Adapted Screenplay), with the other 16 to come at a later date. I have ranked what I see as the top 10 contenders in each category, with the no. 1 ranking being my winner pick as of Oct. 1.

BEST PICTURE

  1. A Star Is Born
  2. ROMA
  3. The Favourite
  4. First Man
  5. Green Book
  6. BlacKkKlansman
  7. Black Panther
  8. If Beale Street Could Talk
  9. Can You Ever Forgive Me?
  10. Widows

I never would have imagined predicting the fourth iteration of a movie released in 1936 for Best Picture in 2018, but here we are. We haven’t quite reached a backlash stage (which will surely come), but hype for A Star Is Born has persisted through the entire year, and the reviews coming out of various festivals have been nothing short of rapturous. This will be a phenomenon, and feels right up voters’ alleys. I do think, however, that any of the next five are waiting in the wings with a realistic shot of taking it. ROMA is bound to be the biggest artistic achievement in the race from a critics’ perspective, but the combination of black and white, foreign language and Netflix makes me nervous about predicting it to win. The Favourite, First Man and Green Book all had great responses at the festivals, though they will have to catch up with A Star Is Born and ROMA in terms of positive buzz. 

From there I’m predicting BlacKkKlansman will finally land Spike Lee his first Best Picture nomination, with its acclaim and strong box office. Black Panther is one of the biggest movies of all time at the box office, capturing the zeitgeist and providing a welcome perspective to the Marvel brand. If Beale Street Could Talk comes from Barry Jenkins, director of Best Picture Moonlight, and had a similarly strong response at festivals. From there, Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Widows, and Vice will likely fight for the last slot.

BEST DIRECTOR

  1. Alfonso Cuarón – ROMA
  2. Bradley Cooper – A Star Is Born
  3. Damien Chazelle – First Man
  4. Yorgos Lanthimos – The Favourite
  5. Barry Jenkins – If Beale Street Could Talk
  6. Peter Farrelly – Green Book
  7. Spike Lee – BlacKkKlansman
  8. Marielle Heller – Can You Ever Forgive Me?
  9. Ryan Coogler – Black Panther
  10. Steve McQueen – Widows

Yeah, I’m predicting a Picture/Director split. Despite a small filmography, Cuarón is one of the most respected directors in Hollywood, and won this category five years ago for Gravity. Everything I’ve read about ROMA suggests a singular, personal film with an artistic flair. If voters are hesitant to reward Bradley Cooper here (when they can easily pick him in Best Actor), Cuarón feels like the natural next in line. I also expect a rematch of 2016 with Chazelle and Jenkins back in the race, though I doubt either will win in the end. Lanthimos has been building support with the Oscars and I expect The Favourite to earn a major haul on nominations morning.

BEST ACTOR

  1. Bradley Cooper – A Star Is Born
  2. Christian Bale – Vice
  3. Ryan Gosling – First Man
  4. Viggo Mortensen – Green Book
  5. Ethan Hawke – First Reformed
  6. Robert Redford – The Old Man & the Gun
  7. John David Washington – BlacKkKlansman
  8. Willem Dafoe – At Eternity’s Gate
  9. Rami Malek – Bohemian Rhapsody
  10. Lucas Hedges – Boy Erased

Every review I’ve read for A Star Is Born has heavily praised Bradley Cooper’s role as drawling, faded country star Jackson Maine. Cooper is an actor Oscar voters clearly like, nominating him three times in a row from 2012-14, and he will be everywhere this season promoting the hell out of A Star Is Born. There are few predictions this year I feel fully confident in, but unless a major contender comes out of nowhere, I don’t see anyone taking him down. His competition should include Christian Bale in a transformative role as Dick Cheney in Vice, Ryan Gosling as Neil Armstrong in First Man, Viggo Mortensen as blunt chauffeur Tony Lip Vallelonga in Green Book, and critic darling Ethan Hawke (who is already campaigning like crazy) as conflicted reverend Ernst Toller in First Reformed. 

BEST ACTRESS

  1. Glenn Close – The Wife
  2. Lady Gaga – A Star Is Born
  3. Melissa McCarthy – Can You Ever Forgive Me?
  4. Emma Stone – The Favourite
  5. Yalitza Aparicio – ROMA
  6. Viola Davis – Widows
  7. Nicole Kidman – Destroyer
  8. Julia Roberts – Ben Is Back
  9. Toni Collette – Hereditary
  10. Kiki Layne – If Beale Street Could Talk

I’m stubbornly sticking by six-time Oscar nominee Glenn Close as my winner. While The Wife has already been released and won’t be as “fresh” as her competition, she received some of the best reviews of her career, and having seen the film, I can say that the third act features some of her best onscreen work to date. She should be able to work the overdue narrative to her favor, but the biggest obstacle will be the nomination. But this could easily turn into a repeat of 1987 as Close watches another pop star-turned-actress snatch the trophy away from her. In this case, Lady Gaga could easily be like Cher in Moonstruck, turning in a revelatory performance that shocks enough voters into checking off her name. Filling out the category, I expect Melissa McCarthy to nab her second Oscar nomination for playing literary forger Lee Israel in Can You Ever Forgive Me?, who I consider a dark horse candidate, plus Emma Stone as the titular role in The Favourite and newcomer Yalitza Aparicio in ROMA.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

  1. Mahershala Ali – Green Book
  2. Sam Elliott – A Star Is Born
  3. Richard E. Grant – Can You Ever Forgive Me?
  4. Daniel Kaluuya – Widows
  5. Timothée Chalamet – Beautiful Boy
  6. Sam Rockwell – Vice
  7. Michael B. Jordan – Black Panther
  8. Adam Driver – BlacKkKlansman
  9. Stephan James – If Beale Street Could Talk
  10. Lin-Manuel Miranda – Mary Poppins Returns

Mahershala Ali is the one repeat winner among actors I’m predicting this year. While a case can be made for Sam Elliot and Richard E. Grant as veterans finally getting their due, Ali has a very sympathetic character in Green Book, as a brilliant pianist navigating the South in the era of Jim Crow. Yes it’s soon after his win for Moonlight, but he strikes me as someone the industry really respects, and this looks like a much baitier role than Juan. I’m predicting two of last year’s Best Actor nominees will fill out the rest of the category, Daniel Kaluuya as a villainous figure in Widows and Timothée Chalamet as a drug addict in Beautiful Boy.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

  1. Olivia Colman – The Favourite
  2. Regina King – If Beale Street Could Talk
  3. Claire Foy – First Man
  4. Rachel Weisz – The Favourite
  5. Michelle Yeoh – Crazy Rich Asians
  6. Amy Adams – Vice
  7. Elizabeth Debicki – Widows
  8. Nicole Kidman – Boy Erased
  9. Sissy Spacek – The Old Man & the Gun
  10. Margot Robbie – Mary Queen of Scots

The Favourite is the designated “lead vs. supporting” film being debated by Oscar predictors, with pundits still unsure about where Colman, Stone and Weisz will compete. I already called my shot that Stone will be in Lead, as the biggest name of the three, and I think Colman will not only compete in Supporting but win in Supporting. As the scene-stealing Queen Anne, she already won the Best Actress award at Venice and she seems set up to tear through the season. Regina King is a major threat, especially after winning another Emmy this year and there’s so much respect for her that she might just upset on Oscar night. Speaking of Emmy winners, Claire Foy should get her first Oscar nomination as the archetypal “suffering wife” role in First Man. Rachel Weisz is more than overdue for her second Oscar nomination after winning in 2005 for The Constant Gardener. My no guts-no glory/wishful thinking pick of the acting categories this year is Michelle Yeoh, who is so great in Crazy Rich Asians and is also richly overdue.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

  1. The Favourite – Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara
  2. Green Book – Nick Vallelonga, Brian Hayes Currie and Peter Farrelly
  3. ROMA – Alfonso Cuarón
  4. Vice – Adam McKay
  5. First Reformed – Paul Schrader
  6. Eighth Grade – Bo Burnham
  7. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs – Joel Coen and Ethan Coen
  8. Destroyer – Phil Hay and Matt Manfredi
  9. Mid90s – Jonah Hill
  10. Sorry to Bother You – Boots Riley

There aren’t many major Best Picture contenders in the Original Screenplay race (ironic considering how competitive this past year’s Original Screenplay lineup was), but the cleverness of The Favourite will likely make it prevail here. I imagine Green Book, ROMA and Vice will be so seen that their nominations are virtually guaranteed. This will be a competition of what gets into that fifth slot, and I’m guessing Paul Schrader’s pedigree (and Ethan Hawke’s performance) will help give him his first Oscar nomination for First Reformed.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

  1. BlacKkKlansman – Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott and Spike Lee
  2. If Beale Street Could Talk – Barry Jenkins
  3. Can You Ever Forgive Me? – Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty
  4. A Star Is Born – Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper and Will Fetters
  5. Widows – Gillian Flynn and Steve McQueen
  6. First Man – Josh Singer
  7. Black Panther – Ryan Coogler and Joe Robert Cole
  8. Crazy Rich Asians – Peter Chiarelli and Adele Lim
  9. Boy Erased – Joel Edgerton
  10. Mary Queen of Scots – Beau Willimon

This is where the action is this year among the two screenplay categories. Despite not having BlacKkKlansman as a top 5 contender in Best Picture, I think it’s in the best position to take home a screenplay win, considering it’s a way to reward Spike Lee, it’s an undeniably clever premise, and it features oodles of juicy monologues. If Beale Street Could Talk and Can You Ever Forgive Me? are also very writer-friendly and could upset if voters are more into those films. The strength of A Star Is Born should vault it into the nominations here, even if musicals of this type don’t always do well. Rounding out the category should be Widows, at the very least to make up for Gillian Flynn’s shocking snub in 2014 for Gone Girl. I originally had First Man as a nominee here but it strikes me as a film whose strengths might not lie in its screenplay.

So there you have it! Let me know your thoughts on my predictions and let me know of your own.