The time has come for me to reveal my final Oscar predictions for the 2017 ceremony. Because there are 24 categories to go through, I am breaking this up into below the line categories, a.k.a. the technical crafts and shorts, and the “major” categories, the feature film prizes, acting, directing and writing. Today I’ll be revealing my winner predictions in the 11 major categories, with rankings for how I see each race.
Read my thoughts on the below the line categories and let me know your thoughts!
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
1. Coco – Lee Unkrich and Darla K. Anderson
2. The Breadwinner – Nora Twomey and Anthony Leo
3. Loving Vincent – Dorota Kobiela, Hugh Welchman and Ivan Mactaggart
4. The Boss Baby – Tom McGrath and Ramsey Ann Naito
5. Ferdinand – Carlos Saldanha
The easiest category to predict of all 24 has to be Best Animated Feature. It’s Coco. No other category has seen such dominance at the precursors and guilds for one film, so none of these others stand a chance. Congrats to Pixar, which will now collect its ninth trophy in this category.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
1. Faces Places – Agnès Varda, JR and Rosalie Varda
2. Icarus – Bryan Fogel and Dan Cogan
3. Last Men in Aleppo – Feras Fayyad, Kareem Abeed and Søren Steen Jespersen
4. Strong Island – Yance Ford and Joslyn Barnes
5. Abacus: Small Enough to Jail – Steve James, Mark Mitten and Julie Goldman
On the flip side, Documentary Feature is one of the hardest to predict, since precursor-sweeper Jane wasn’t even nominated at the Oscars! None of these films have had any kind of dominance among industry awards, so it all comes down to guesswork as far as what the Academy values. Based on recent mainstream/palatable winners here like Amy and 20 Feet from Stardom, I’m guessing they will like Faces Places most since it is about legendary French New Wave director Agnès Varda, providing the most uplift in a category full of downers.
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
1. A Fantastic Woman (Chile) – Sebastian Lelio
2. The Square (Sweden) – Ruben Östlund
3. Loveless (Russia) – Andrey Zvyagintsev
4. On Body and Soul (Hungary) – Ildikó Enyedi
5. The Insult (Lebanon) – Ziad Doueiri
Foreign Language Film is another toughie. While The Square has done the best among all these nominees at other awards, I am going with A Fantastic Woman because its subject matter, about a transgender woman battling prejudice, is compelling and timely, and its star Daniela Vega has been making the rounds and is set to present at the Oscar ceremony. Even if it is brutal to watch at times, it still provides a cathartic experience unlike anything else in this category.
BEST DIRECTOR
1. Guillermo del Toro – The Shape of Water
2. Christopher Nolan – Dunkirk
3. Greta Gerwig – Lady Bird
4. Jordan Peele – Get Out
5. Paul Thomas Anderson – Phantom Thread
Guillermo del Toro has won most of the director prizes, including Critics’ Choice, Golden Globe, BAFTA and the Directors Guild of America Award (DGA). He is pretty locked and loaded in my eyes, especially with The Shape of Water having the most nominations this year at 13. Christopher Nolan is the best shot at an upset, but it is clear whenever del Toro opens his mouth to speak about film that everyone is enraptured. He is the kind of man they want to give an Oscar to, and that can be more important than you’d think.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Sam Rockwell – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
2. Willem Dafoe – The Florida Project
3. Christopher Plummer – All the Money in the World
4. Richard Jenkins – The Shape of Water
5. Woody Harrelson – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Sam Rockwell has swept award season thus far, winning at Critics’ Choice, Golden Globes, SAG and BAFTA, making him pretty unbeatable. The only thing stopping him is if people are turned off by his racist cop character. Discerning voters should understand that any problems they have with his characterization is more on screenwriter/director Martin McDonagh than Rockwell, but you never know. As the critics favorite I still think Willem Dafoe could have had a shot but with this being the only nomination for The Florida Project, his chances seem to have slipped away yet again.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Allison Janney – I, Tonya
2. Laurie Metcalf – Lady Bird
3. Lesley Manville – Phantom Thread
4. Mary J. Blige – Mudbound
5. Octavia Spencer – The Shape of Water
This is one of the most difficult races to experience on a personal level, because of my love for Laurie Metcalf in Lady Bird. Her complex performance is so much greater to me than Allison Janney’s monster mom in I, Tonya, that it’s been tough to see her lose again and again to Janney. Like with Rockwell, Janney has swept every precursor and she has attended numerous events around Hollywood, so the Oscar is probably hers. This is probably the acting category most ripe for an upset, though, and Metcalf would be a great way for voters to honor Lady Bird, considering it will likely go home empty-handed.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1. Call Me by Your Name – James Ivory
2. The Disaster Artist – Scott Neustadter and Michael H. Weber
3. Molly’s Game – Aaron Sorkin
4. Mudbound – Virgil Williams and Dee Rees
5. Logan – Scott Frank, James Mangold and Michael Green
Another easy race to call is Call Me by Your Name in Adapted Screenplay. None of these others can really touch what James Ivory does with CMBYN, a true masterclass in both monologues and unspoken pauses. It will be a special moment to see the 89-year-old Oscar-less Ivory finally get the honor he deserves.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri – Martin McDonagh
2. Get Out – Jordan Peele
3. Lady Bird – Greta Gerwig
4. The Shape of Water – Guillermo del Toro and Vanessa Taylor
5. The Big Sick – Emily V. Gordon and Kumail Nanjiani
Original Screenplay has been one of those hair-pulling races, where conceivably any of the top three (or even four) could win. I don’t feel great about it, but I think Martin McDonagh is so respected as a screenwriter and a playwright, and Three Billboards is full to the brim with meaty dialogue and plot twists that it’s the kind of script that tends to win here. But Get Out‘s Jordan Peele has done extremely well among precursors, including WGA, that he is right there. It is the most original script of the year, point blank, and I would think voters would know that this is the category to reward Get Out. Unfortunately I have a feeling the older contingent will not consider it a true “Oscar movie.”
BEST ACTOR
1. Gary Oldman – Darkest Hour
2. Timothée Chalamet – Call Me by Your Name
3. Daniel Day-Lewis – Phantom Thread
4. Daniel Kaluuya – Get Out
5. Denzel Washington – Roman J. Israel, Esq.
It’s Gary Oldman. As soon as we saw the first still image of Oldman as Winston Churchill under all that makeup we knew it was gonna be Oldman. He has won every major precursor, and the movie was nominated for Best Picture. Lock, lock, lock. I wish it were Timothée, but his time will come.
BEST ACTRESS
1. Frances McDormand – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
2. Sally Hawkins – The Shape of Water
3. Saoirse Ronan – Lady Bird
4. Margot Robbie – I, Tonya
5. Meryl Streep – The Post
This is a race that should have been more competitive given the quality of performances, but Frances McDormand has amassed all the major trophies thus far. I expect her to add the Oscar as well, which would be her second, after winning for 1996’s Fargo. Even those who don’t like Three Billboards can agree that McDormand is great in the movie, and a big part of why it doesn’t fail completely, so the Oscar is hers.
BEST PICTURE
1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Producers: Graham Broadbent, Pete Czernin and Martin McDonagh
2. The Shape of Water
Producers: Guillermo del Toro and J. Miles Dale
3. Get Out
Producers: Sean McKittrick, Jason Blum, Edward H. Hamm Jr. and Jordan Peele
4. Lady Bird
Producers: Scott Rudin, Eli Bush and Evelyn O’Neill
5. Dunkirk
Producers: Emma Thomas and Christopher Nolan
6. Call Me by Your Name
Producers: Peter Spears, Luca Guadagnino, Emilie Georges and Marco Morabito
7. Phantom Thread
Producers: JoAnne Sellar, Paul Thomas Anderson, Megan Ellison and Daniel Lupi
8. The Post
Producers: Amy Pascal, Steven Spielberg and Kristie Macosko Krieger
9. Darkest Hour
Producers: Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner, Lisa Bruce, Anthony McCarten and Douglas Urbanski
Now the big one. You can safely dismiss Darkest Hour, The Post, Phantom Thread and Call Me by Your Name, as they are all too safe or artsy for a general voting body. I’ve heard respect for Dunkirk but not a huge amount of real passion, so I think that’s done too. Get Out and Lady Bird are the preferred choices among those on the internet, but I worry that they are too young-skewing, and I’ve seen Oscar voters talking about how both are either underwhelming or not truly Oscar-worthy. This race will likely come down to The Shape of Water and Three Billboards. Both have their flaws and both are seemingly divisive, but this award season has shown that these are the movies voters are most passionate about, with Shape winning at Critics’ Choice, Producers Guild of America Awards (PGA) and DGA and Three Billboards winning at Golden Globes, SAG and BAFTA. Despite McDonagh’s lack of a director nomination, I will very tentatively say that Three Billboards is probably winning Best Picture, because it tackles timely subject matter, from corrupt cops to women taking charge of their narratives to racism, that it will be catnip for the Academy. I would argue that The Shape of Water is more relevant, with its story of outsiders teaming up to take on straight white male assholes, but Academy voters like their points beat over the head, and that’s why Three Billboards will win Best Picture.